A Study of the Impact of Different Demographic Change Paths on the Urban Workers’ Basic Pension Insurance Funds：Based on the Analysis of Employment of Universal Two-child Policy
Shi Renbing Chen Ning
School of Sociology，Huazhong University of Technology and Science， Wuhan 430074
Abstract：Population ageing has brought challenges to basic pension insurance system of the urban workers in China. Based on the existing data of the sixth population censuses， previous China Statistical Yearbooks and so on， this article forecasts the influence of childbearing policy adjustment on the urban workers’ basic pension funds by resorting to population-forecasting method and actuarial modeling approach. The results can be presented as follows. First of all， the process of population ageing can be relieved effectively， and compared with the reference project， the level of ageing population decreases by 1.8%,4.7% and 8.1% respectively corresponding to the low， medium and high levels of policy adjustment. Secondly， under the unchanged fertility policy， the current and cumulative gap of the social pooling funds will occur respectively in 2025 and 2032. Thirdly，the financial situation of social pooling funds can be improved. The funds increases by 4.53%,12.59% and 25.1% respectively according to the low， medium and high levels of policy adjustment. Fourthly， the premium rate of social pension funds can be reduced from 20% to 17.8%－19.52% in case of the financial revenues of the original childbearing policy unchanged.
石人炳 陈 宁. 不同人口变动路径对职工基本养老保险基金收支的影响研究——基于“全面二孩”政策调整后的人口模拟分析[J]. 华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）, 2017, 56(5): 35-44.
Shi Renbing Chen Ning. A Study of the Impact of Different Demographic Change Paths on the Urban Workers’ Basic Pension Insurance Funds：Based on the Analysis of Employment of Universal Two-child Policy. journal1, 2017, 56(5): 35-44.
2017, Vol. 56 
