Abstract：As common mosses in arid and semi-arid environments， Orthotrichaceae are extremely sensitive to temperature and precipitation. The species richness of Orthotrichaceae increases from east to west in China， and is relatively high in Xinjiang. Orthotrichum， Lewinskya and Nyholmiella are widely distributed in Xinjiang. In order to make clear the change on floristic， diversity and distribution of the three genus， it is necessary to predict the potential distribution in Xinjiang by current and future climate scenarios. MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution areas and analyze the climatic factors based on 125 geography-collected sites and 19 climatic factors in Xinjiang. The results are shown as follows. 1) The AUC value was as high as 0.945， indicating that the model is able to predict the suitable area range of the three genus well. Jackknife test suggested that the main climatic factors were the average temperature in the wettest season and the rainfall in the driest season with contribution rates of 24.5% and 23.9%， respectively. 2) These three genera are mainly distributed in Altay， Tacheng， central Tianshan Mountains， Hami， Kashgar， Kezhou， Hotan and Bazhou. Under the climate scenario in the 2050s， the distribution of these genera in Altay and Tacheng will expand， while those in Kashgar and Bazhou will shrink. Overall， in 2070s the potential distribution area of the three genera in Xinjiang will be smaller than present. In this paper， the current and future potential distribution of Bryophytes in Xinjiang is predicted only based on climate factors. The topography and vegetation types which affect bryophytes growth will be considered to improve the accuracy of the prediction results in the future work.
2022, Vol. 56 
