Evaluation on natural gas energy security in China
LI Yunhe1， XIAO Jianzhong2， LI Ming2
1.Wanhe Hongyuan Investment Co.， Ltd， Shenzhen， Guangdong 518000， China；2.School of Economics and Management， China University of Geosciences， Wuhan 430074， China
Abstract：As an important energy resource affecting national economic security， natural gas has been highly valued by all countries in the world. As China’s natural gas dependence has been rising and the international political environment has become more and more unstable， natural gas energy security has become a strategic issue of major concern in China. This paper proposes a comprehensive and integrated approach and a quantitative model framework to quantify China’s natural gas energy security. Based on the four dimensions of natural gas resource availability， technology availability， environmental carrying capacity and national affordability， China’s natural gas is constructed. Based on the 4-As radar chart， the general trend of China’s natural gas security change from 2005 to 2018 are analyzed， as well as the evolution and influencing factors of various security dimensions. The results shows as follows. 1) Since 2005， China’s natural gas energy security has fallen first and then increased in a “V” shape.From 2005 to 2011， China’s natural gas energy security has been in a downward trend as a whole. It was at a high level in 2005， and reached the lowest value in 2011. After 2011， the natural gas energy security continued to rise and reached the highest value in 2017. 2) China’s natural gas energy security is subject to the four-dimensional joint constraints， among which resources obtaining capacity has become a key factor restricting China’s natural gas energy security， and the availability of natural gas technology has become the most important driving force for the increase in China’s natural gas energy security； 3) The strong demand for natural gas has reduced the availability of natural gas and increased its external dependency capacity， it is imminent to build a secure national natural gas system. As China’s natural gas dependence on foreign countries continues to rise and the instability of the international political environment has intensified， securing natural gas imports and securing international pricing rights for natural gas have become important factors affecting China’s natural gas energy security.
李云鹤,肖建忠,黎 明. 中国天然气能源安全评价研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 54(2): 313-323.
LI Yunhe,XIAO Jianzhong,LI Ming. Evaluation on natural gas energy security in China. journal1, 2020, 54(2): 313-323.
2020, Vol. 54 
