Research on the medical allocation decisions in the context of COVID-19 epidemic evolution
LI Qing1， SU Qiang2
(1.School of Economics and Management， Shanghai University of Political Science and Law， Shanghai， 200333， China； 2.School of Economics and Management， Tongji University， Shanghai 200092， China)
Abstract：According to the characteristics of information， number of infected persons and representative events during the evolution of COVID-19 epidemic， it is divided into four stages： emergence， outbreak， peak， and decline.Taking Hubei Province and other provinces of China except Hubei Province into consideration， the daily number of new infected person in these two parts under four stages was plotted.The characteristics of the four stage were summarized.Supposing that the transmission probability of infected persons remained unchanged， a time-varying demand model for medical supplies was established based on the SEIR epidemic model. Besides， considering that the transmission probability of infected persons is updated continuously， the Bayesian sequential decision model was adopted to make material allocation decision. The differences of material allocation decision between the two models were compared， and the influences of different models on the results were anlyzed. The errors of the Bayesian model and the traditional model are all smaller than those of the time-varing model for both the predicted and actual daily number of infections.
李 清,苏 强. 新冠肺炎疫情演化情境下应急物资需求预测研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 55(4): 661-670.
LI Qing,SU Qiang. Research on the medical allocation decisions in the context of COVID-19 epidemic evolution. journal1, 2021, 55(4): 661-670.
2021, Vol. 55 
