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Abstract Using CHNS and CHIP data， this paper takes OLS and IV techniques to estimate the long-term trend of the returns to education in urban China from 1988 to 2013. The paper finds that：firstly，the returns to education kept relatively low before 1995， increased rapidly until 2005 and then decreased. Secondly，the trends of the returns to education for female and male are almost the same. However，the returns to education for female was higher than that for male in the same year，and the returns to education for female is more unstable. Finally，the OLS estimates underestimate the returns to education and estimating the returns to education for female is more susceptible to endogenous bias. It suggests that the governments should pay attention to the role of human capital such as education in the resource allocation，and constantly improve the systems of labor market.
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Received: 17 July 2017
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2017, Vol. 56 
