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| Forecast of the Peak of China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on the Green Solow Model |
| Fu Zhe1 Yan Jianye2 Sun Yanmei3 He Jing4 |
| 1.School of Banking and Finance，University of International Business and Economics， “The Belt and Road” PPP Development and Research Center， Beijing 100029；2.Institute of New Structural Economics， Peking University， Beijing 100871；3.School of Banking and Finance， University of Internation Business and Economics， Beijing 100029；4.Business School，University of International Business and Economics， Beijing 100029 |
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Abstract This paper improves the classical theoretical model of the environmental Kuznets curve，the Green Solow Model on the establishment of the micro-foundation， and calibrates the parameters according to Chinese economic data. The results support the general trends of Chinese data and the conclusions made by domestic empirical researches from perspectives of theory and numerical simulation. Furthermore，through the numerical simulation method，it uses the theoretical model for the first time to predict the Kuznets curve inflection point of China’s carbon dioxide emissions (around 2030)， which is highly consistent with China’s 2020 and 2030 emission reduction targets. Finally，based on the counterfactual analysis of changing environmental governance expenditures， it finds that the acceleration of emission reduction technological progress is more effective than improving governance expenditures in terms of accelerating the reduction of total emissions.
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Received: 26 September 2019
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2019, Vol. 58 
