Cold climate and epidemics： a historical analysis of 770 BCE—1949 CE in China
GONG Shengsheng1,2,3, CHEN Zhiyu1
1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China 2.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geoprocess Analysis and Simulation， Wuhan 430079， China 3.Center for Sustainable Development Studies， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China
Abstract：The prevalence of epidemics is closely related to climatic conditions. A correlation analysis of cold climates and epidemic outbreaks in China from 770 BCE to 1949 CE was conducted using the sequential coupling analysis method. The results show the following： 1） Over the past 2，720 years， there were 890 epidemic-years in China， 97 of which （10.90%） were caused by abnormal cold. The abnormal cold was mainly characterized by autumn cold （34.43%） and summer cold （27.32%）. 2） Whether on a decadal scale or an annual scale， the degree of coldness in the climate shows a significant positive correlation with the severity of epidemic disasters. This correlation was particularly prominent during the cold period of the Wei， Jin， Southern and Northern Dynasties and the Little Ice Age of the Ming Dynasty. 3） The direct reason why cold climates trigger the prevalence of epidemic disasters is that cold climates can prolong the survival time of pathogens in the environment while weakening human immunity. The indirect reasons are the floods， droughts and famines induced by cold climates， forming an action path of “cold climate → floods and droughts → survival crisis → prevalence of epidemic disasters”. This study examines the relationship between climate and epidemic disasters within the historical time domain of a millennial scale， which holds important scientific value for deeply understanding the health effects of climate change.
龚胜生,陈志禹. 寒冷气候与疫灾：中国三千年的历史分析[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2025, 59(5): 765-772.
GONG Shengsheng,CHEN Zhiyu. Cold climate and epidemics： a historical analysis of 770 BCE—1949 CE in China. journal1, 2025, 59(5): 765-772.
2025, Vol. 59 
