Impact of Demographic Changes on Housing Demand——Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2002 to 2016
Deng Hongqian1,2 Huang Guan1,2 Xu Sheng1
1.School of Economics and Business Administration， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079；2.Real Estate Development Research Center of Hubei， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079
Abstract：How does the demographic changes affect housing demand？ This paper analyzes the impact of birth rate and aging on housing demand by establishing a three-period OLG model.The results of theoretical analysis shows that the decline in birth rate will promote housing demand， while the deepening of population aging will reduce housing demand.Then based on the provincial panel data of China from 2002 to 2016， it empirically tests whether housing demand will be affected by birth rate and aging. The empirical results show that under the dynamic panel conditions， the decline in birth rate can explain China’s continuous increase of housing demand in the past 15 years. The population aging and housing demand show a significant positive relationship that is contrary to the theoretical model conclusions. This may be attributed to the value-added effect of real estate in the process of marketization of housing reform in China， and the inter-generational income transfer in the context of “altruism” and family pension rooted in traditional culture.
邓宏乾, 黄 冠, 徐 升. 人口结构变动对住房需求的影响——基于2002－2016年省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）, 2019, 58(3): 51-59.
Deng Hongqian, Huang Guan, Xu Sheng. Impact of Demographic Changes on Housing Demand——Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2002 to 2016. journal1, 2019, 58(3): 51-59.
2019, Vol. 58 
