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| Driving Force of China’s Structure Change and Economic Growth——Counterfactual Analysis Based on a Multisector Model |
| Yan Chengdong |
| School of Economics， Central University of Fiance and Economics， Beijing 100081 |
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Abstract This paper presents a multisector model involving agriculture sector， nonagriculture sector and government sector，and explores the driving force of China’s structure change and economic growth through counterfactual analysis. Quantitative analysis shows that total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture is the most important factor in explaining China’s structure change. Contributions of TFP in the nonagriculture sector，capital deepening and government expenditure to China’s structure change are relatively small. Endogenous preference and the declining of labor market distortion driven by marketization may also play important roles in China’s structure change. TFP，capital deepening and government expenditure are the main driving forces for China’s economic growth. TFP in agriculture sector and capital deepening in nonagriculture sector are the main reasons for China’s economic growth during 1978 to 1994. Capital deepening and TPF in nonagriculture sector are the main reasons for China’s economic growth during 1995 to 2012. Through comparison analysis，it finds out that the contribution of capital deepening to China’s economic growth is increasing， whereas the contribution of TPF to China’s economic growth is increasing.
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