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| Impact of the Mega Trade Agreements on China’s Economy： A Comparison Based on the TPP， TTIP and RCEP |
| Gao Jingyun Chen Shumei |
| School of Economics and Management， Southeast University， Nanjing 210000 |
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Abstract Based on the statistical analysis of trade and investment between China and the TPP，TTIP，RCEP respectively in recent years， this paper utilizes GTAP model to simulate and compare the potential impacts of the TPP，TTIP and RCEP on China’s economy，from different perspectives such as economic aggregate， foreign trade， welfare and industrial output. The results indicate that： once the TPP and TTIP are built，the interests of the non-members such as China will be damaged and the external diseconomy will be produced. Once the RCEP is also built，the negative effects of the TPP and TTIP will be weakened to some extent， thus driving the economic growth of RCEP members，especially China and South Korea. On this basis，once including China’s TPP， TTIP and RCEP are built， China’s economic effects will be the most obvious. If and only if the RCEP is built，the vast majority of RCEP members，including China，will benefit. Overall， the establishment of TPP，TTIP and RCEP will have a negative impact on the industrial output of China’s automobile，other industrial products and services. Finally，from the perspective of regional economic integration，suggestions for promoting China’s economic growth are put forward.
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Received: 17 July 2017
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2017, Vol. 56 
