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| The Causality Evaluation Method on Public Policies and Programs and Its Application |
| Hu Yongmei1 Tang Yipeng2 |
| 1.Faculty of Education， Capital Institute of Economics of Education， Beijing Normal University， Beijing 100875；2.School of Education， Capital Normal University， Beijing 100037 |
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Abstract Policy evaluation based on causal inference models has been paid increasing attention by scholars from home and abroad， a revolution of credibility in empirical research is taking place. This article explores the concept of causal effect in detail， reviews the main assumptions that causal inference should be complied with， and analyzes the impacts that the key technical problem of omitted variable bias brings to causal inference and the possible solutions. On this basis， this article borrows from recent development in related empirical research， illustrates the basics of some typical econometric methods such as Instrumental Variables， Difference in Difference， Matching， Discontinuity Regression， and their applications in policy and program evaluations. In the future， it would be an important mission for social scientists to identify policy or program effects by scientific research design， the research on causal inference would also be broken through， so as to provide policy and program evaluation with more rigid and feasible references.
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Received: 28 May 2018
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2018, Vol. 57 
