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| New Policies of the 14th Five-Year Plan and Fiscal Burden of the Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents |
| Yang Zaigui1 Xu Ding2 |
| (1.China Institute for Actuarial Science， Central University of Finance and Economics， Beijing 100081；2. School of Economics， Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics， Zhengzhou 450046) |
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Abstract According to the fourteenth Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035， the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents will adjust the level of individual payment and the payment subsidy standard， gradually increase the minimum payment period， and standardize the method of calculating interest of individual accounts. We construct actuarial models to calculate the fiscal burden of the basic endowment insurance in each year from 2021 to 2035， and examine the impacts of the new policies in the fourteenth Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 on the fiscal burden. We find that the cumulative increase of the policy parameters mentioned above will increase the fiscal burden， but the impact is weak. Sensitivity test results remain stable. Raising the age for receiving pensions and the number of months of pension calculation and disbursement in individual accounts will reduce the financial burden， while increasing the payment continuity rate and the growth rate of basic pensions will increase the financial burden. The age for receiving pensions and the rate of payment continuity have a strong influence， while the influence of the basic pension growth rate and the number of months of pension calculation and payment in individual accounts is weak. Based on the research results， we propose the respective policy suggestions to improve the endowment insurance system.
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Received: 21 November 2022
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2022, Vol. 61 
