(1.School of Economics and Management， China University of Geosciences， Wuhan 430074， China；2.Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System Co-Constructed by the Province and Ministry， Hubei University Of Economics ，Wuhan 430205， China；3.School of Information Engineering， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law， Wuhan 430073， China)
Abstract：Under the influence of insufficient domestic reserves and intensified international competition， the critical mineral resources of new energy in China are facing greater supply risks. This paper establishes a supply security evaluation system by selecting 11 indicators across five dimensions： resource security， market security， competitive security， international environmental security， and natural environmental security. Taking copper， lithium， cobalt and nickel as examples， the study adopts the SMAA-TRI method to evaluate the supply risk of China's new energy critical mineral resources during 2005-2022， and utilizes the ARIMA prediction model to achieve a early-warning of the supply security during 2023-2035. The results show that due to the decline of resource security and reserve-production ratio， the grade of copper supply security from 2005 to 2035 decreases from medium to low， and the supply security level is expected to be relatively tight in 2035. Due to problems such as high import dependence and large price fluctuations， the supply security level of lithium from 2005 to 2035 fluctuates around the medium security level， and the supply security level is expected to be relatively controllable in 2035. From 2005 to 2035， the security level of cobalt supply decreases from medium to low security， mainly because of the scarcity of reserves， high import dependence， low economic freedom and poor political stability of the import source countries， and the supply security level in 2035 is expected to be at the brink of danger. From 2005 to 2035， the grade of nickel supply security decreases significantly from high security to low security， mainly because of the obvious decline in China's nickel resource reserves in recent years and the continuous decline in the political stability of the import source countries， and the supply security level is expected to remain very low in 2035.
成金华,周文潇,沈鹏程,黄 民,李 冶. 中国新能源关键矿产资源供应安全评价与预警——以铜、锂、钴、镍为例[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2025, 59(4): 611-623.
CHENG Jinhua,ZHOU Wenxiao,SHEN Pengcheng,HUANG Min,LI Ye. Evaluation and early-warning of critical mineral resource supply security for China's new energy sector：cases of copper， lithium， cobalt， and nickel. journal1, 2025, 59(4): 611-623.
2025, Vol. 59 
