Spatio-temporal divergence of entrepreneurial activity and nonstationarity of its drivers in China
XIANG Yafang1,2， DENG Hongbing1,2， ZHANG Tianling2,3， JIAO Hongrui1,2
(1.School of Economics and Management， China University of Geosciences (Wuhan)， Wuhan 430078，China；(2.Soft Science Research Base for Monitoring and Analyzing Regional Innovation Capacity in Hubei Province， Wuhan 430078，China；3.Hubei Institute of Macroeconomic Research， Wuhan 430064，China)
Abstract：Digital change is reshaping China's economic and social landscape and entrepreneurial space. In order to clarify the spatial evolution characteristics of entrepreneurial activity and its driving factors， this paper uses kernel density estimation， spatial Markov chain and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) models to analyze the entrepreneurial activity data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019. The results show that on the one hand， the spatial distribution of entrepreneurial activity demonstrates an obvious gradient decreasing characteristic， i.e.， the eastern region is higher than the western region， forming a pattern of “east high， west low”； on the other hand， there is an obvious spatial agglomeration phenomenon in the distribution of entrepreneurial activity， which embodies the “club convergence” and “Matthew effect”， with high entrepreneurial activity areas further agglomerating and low activity areas prone to fall into a long-term slump. In addition， digital trade facilitates the influence of various factors on entrepreneurial activity through the “amplification mechanism”， effectively reducing the constraint of geospatial distance. The results of the study provide targeted recommendations for policymakers， emphasizing the importance of regional heterogeneity in promoting entrepreneurial activity， optimizing financial services and promoting digital infrastructure in order to stimulate entrepreneurial potential across regions.
2025, Vol. 59 
