The analysis of time-space evolution of consumption level and influencing factors based on spatial econometric model
SHEN Pengpeng1， ZHOU Nianxing1， ZHANG Yunxiang1， XIE Yinyin1， MA Huanhuan1， WANG Kun2
1.College of Geographical Science，Nanjing Normal University，Nanjing 210023， China；2.College of Tourism and Cultural industry，Guizhou University，Guiyang 550025， China
Abstract：Expanding domestic demand is an important way to maintain steady economic operation. This paper firstly calculates the regional consumption level difference and spatial autocorrelation between 2002 and 2013 in Jiangsu province， then， combing the method of markov chain and spatial panel statistical analysis to explore its time-space evolution pattern and its main influencing factors so as to provide the targeted policy to improve the overall level of consumption. The results show as follows. Firstly， the regional consumption level difference tends to decline and stable since 2002 years， however，the agglomeration differentiation pattern is increasingly obvious. Secondly， the consumption exhibits spatially north-south cluster pattern， which is the result of interaction between regional itself and its neighboring regions. Thirdly， with different spatial econometric model under the fixed effects， each variables' influencing direction and size on consumption level can effectively be found. Among them， The fixed assets investment， per capita fiscal expenditure， and foreign capital utilization level will help significantly promote the level of consumption； residents income rise contributes to raising consumption level； the highway freight volume， regional economy development and the third industry of GDP have an significantly negative effects on regional consumption level， while the employment rate and household saving have both negative and positive effect on regional consumption. Finally， some tips are given. all regions should maintain a rapid growth in the future， increasing rural fiscal expenditure， narrow the gap between urban and rural， turning more social welfare benefit to farmers； under the demand-orientation， to develop new services， to build a professional commodity transaction system； to raise workers' income and social security.
申鹏鹏,周年兴,张允翔,谢引引,马欢欢,王 坤. 基于空间计量模型的消费水平时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 52(2): 256-263.
SHEN Pengpeng,ZHOU Nianxing,ZHANG Yunxiang,XIE Yinyin,MA Huanhuan,WANG Kun. The analysis of time-space evolution of consumption level and influencing factors based on spatial econometric model. journal1, 2018, 52(2): 256-263.
2018, Vol. 52 
