Poverty-returning risk of farmers and its' influencing factors in rural tourism sites： a case study of Enshi
QIAO Huafang1,2,3， XU Jianbo3,4， LIU Rong3， GUO Ziyu3， XIE Shuangyu1,2,3
(1.Wuhan Branch of China Tourism Academy， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China；2.Hubei Province Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China；3.College of Urban and Environmental Science， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China；4.School of Economics and Management， East China Normal University， Shanghai 200062， China)
Abstract：Effective prevention of poverty-returning risk is the key to the effective convergence of poverty eradication and rural revitalization strategies in the post-poverty era. This study also incorporates the probability of risk into the risk assessment system of poverty-returning risk， comprehensively assesses the poverty-returning risk was comprehensively evaluated in this study with the risk probablility incorporated into the risk assessment system and in terms of both the probability of occurrence and the degree of destruction. The possibility and destructiveness of the poverty-returning risk were systematically reflected， and then its influencing factors were explored. Results are shown as follows. 1) The level of poverty-returning risk of farmers in each dimension is individual risk， family risk， social risk and natural risk in descending order， and farmers are more influenced by family risk and individual risk， with obvious endogenous and individualized characteristics. 2) According to the probability of occurrence and the degree of damage， the poverty-returning risk is able to be divided into “high probability-high damage” type， “high probability-low damage” type and “low probability-low damage” type. Among them， the “high probability-high destruction” type includes non-agricultural employment ability and education burden， and has the highest risk index and the greatest threat of poverty-returning risk to farm households. 3) Household characteristics such as the number of dependents and the education level of the household head are the main factors affecting the poverty-returning risk. Different rural tourism poverty alleviation development models lead to significant differences in the poverty-returning risk for farmers. In the practice of preventing poverty-returning， measures should be applied according to households， focusing on prevention and control of endogenous poverty return， and at the same time， reasonable early warning mechanisms and prevention and control measures should be formulated for poverty-returning risk according to the differences in the probability of occurrence and degree of damage of poverty-returning risk.
乔花芳,许建波,刘 荣,郭子钰,谢双玉,. 恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 58(1): 139-149.
QIAO Huafang,XU Jianbo,LIU Rong,GUO Ziyu,XIE Shuangyu,. Poverty-returning risk of farmers and its' influencing factors in rural tourism sites： a case study of Enshi. journal1, 2024, 58(1): 139-149.
2024, Vol. 58 
