Epidemic risk zoning of kala-azar in the Republic of China based on environmental factors
LI Zimo1， GONG Shengsheng2， CHEN Danyang3， WANG Xiaowei4， SHI Guoning5， ZHANG Tao2
(1.College of tourism and economic management， Nanchang Normal University， Nanchang 330032， China； 2.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Research Institute of Sustainable Development， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China； 3.Dean's office， Nanchang Normal University， Nanchang 330032， China； 4.School of Tourism， Shandong Women's University， Jinan 250300， China；5.School of Economics and Management， Handan University， Handan 056006， Hebei，China)
Abstract：Kala-azar (classified as visceral leishmaniasis now) is a newly introduced chronic endemic infectious disease， which has had a profound impact in some areas. Using the methods of Grapher time series analysis， GIS spatial analysis， MaxEnt niche analysis and other methods， the temporal and spatial characteristics， risk zoning and influencing factors of the prevalence of kala-azar in the Republic of China were discussed. The results are shown as follows. 1) The prevalence frequency of kala-azar in the Republic of China was 78.95%， forming the epidemic peak in 1923， 1934－1937 and 1946， respectively and it mainly occured in summer and autumn. 2) During the Republic of China， kala-azar was distributed almost entirely in the north of the Yangtze River， and formed a dense distribution area in the border areas of Jiangsu， Anhui， Henan and Shandong Province. 3) The suitable range of the “North Yangtze River and similar spheres” for the occurrence of kala-azar laid out the geographical pattern of the risk level of kala-azar. The high risk level of provinces exhibited in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River basin， especially in Jiangsu， Anhui， Henan and Shandong with special risk level and Hebei， Shanxi， Shaanxi and other provinces with high risk level. 4) Among the factors influencing the prevalence of kala-azar， river network density (20.2%)， sunshine hours (17.3%)， elevation above sea level (14.5%) and minimum temperature (10.0%) had the highest contribution.
李孜沫,龚胜生,陈丹阳,王晓伟,石国宁,张 涛. 基于环境要素的民国时期黑热病流行危险分区[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 57(5): 673-681.
LI Zimo,GONG Shengsheng,CHEN Danyang,WANG Xiaowei,SHI Guoning,ZHANG Tao. Epidemic risk zoning of kala-azar in the Republic of China based on environmental factors. journal1, 2023, 57(5): 673-681.
2023, Vol. 57 
