Abstract：The continuous melting of Arctic sea ice has improved the navigation environment of the Arctic route， which will have a profound impact on the global maritime trade model and economic pattern， especially for countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle. In order to explore the macroeconomic impact of the use of the Arctic route on the countries in the economic and trade circle， a GTAP model was utilized to quantitatively evaluate the potential economic impact of the Arctic route， and conclusions were draw as follows. 1) The shortening of transportation distances brought about by the Arctic shipping routes has a positive impact on the real GDP of most countries. 2) The use of the Arctic route will not only improve the welfare and trade conditions of residents in the Arctic route economic circle， but also significantly improve the welfare and trade conditions of other countries in the world. 3) The Arctic route will bring industrial structure adjustment effects to the countries in its economic and trade circle. 4) The CIF prices between countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle have dropped significantly， among which the CIF prices of natural resources， grains and crops have fallen most significantly. 5) The use of the Arctic route will bring about a trade transfer effect to the countries in the economic and trade circle， and enhance the economic and trade ties between the countries in the circle.
崔 健,李诗悦,齐芯莉. 基于GTAP模型的北极航线经贸圈国家间经贸效应研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 57(1): 117-128.
CUI Jian,LI Shiyue,QI Xinli. Research on the economic and trade effects among countries in the Arctic route economic and trade circle based on the GTAP model. journal1, 2023, 57(1): 117-128.
2023, Vol. 57 
