Analysis and simulation of spatio-temporal evolution of land use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt since 2000
WU Hao1,2， WU Xia1,2， WANG Wei1,2， LIN Anqi1,2， SONG Danxia1,2， GAO Cong1,2
1.Key Laboratory of Geographic Process Analysis and Simulation， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China；2.School of Urban and Environmental Sciences， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China
Abstract：Analyzing and simulating the spatial pattern of land use is important basis for optimizing the management and control of land spatial planning， and is of great significance for promoting the construction of ecological civilization and the intensive use of land conservation. Based on MODIS Global 500 m land use data of 2001， 2009 and 2017， this paper uses Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). The results show as follows. 1) The Kappa coefficient is as high as 0.894 2 by cross-validating the results of land use simulation and actual land use classification in 2017， which indicates that it is feasible to use CA-Markov model and MCE method to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of land use. 2) Since 2000， the area of coniferous forest， broad-leaved forest and mixed forest in the YREB increased significantly by 4 200 km2， 26 700 km2 and 24 400 km2， respectively， while the area of tropical multi-savanna， savanna and grassland decreased by 47 600 km2， 12 000 km2 and 9 100 km2， suggesting that the grassland in western China has been seriously degraded. The change of land use types in the YREB is 33.53%， among which the transfer between agricultural land and tropical savanna was the most active， implying that the construction of shelter forest system in the Yangtze River Basin is steadily advancing. The policy of returning farmland to forestry and grassland in the Yangtze River Economic Zone has achieved preliminary results in the improvement and quality optimization of agricultural land， and has played a significant role in ecological protection and restoration. 3) The simulation results show that the area of tropical savanna in the YREB would continue to increase to 38 400 km2 in 2025， which is due to the promotion of ecological restoration policies such as returning farmland to forests and grasslands. However， the area of tropical multi-tree grassland has decreased the most， reaching 26 800 km2， which will affect the overall ecological function of forest land to a certain extent and should be paid attention to. The area of agricultural land decreased by 22 700 km2， second only to tropical multi-tree grassland， which indicates that continuously strengthening the supervision of the red line of cultivated land and enhancing the intensive use of urban land are required to achieve regional sustainable development in YREB.
吴 浩,吴 霞,王 伟,林安琪,宋旦霞,高 聪,. 2000年以来长江经济带土地利用时空演化分析与模拟研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 53(5): 692-702.
WU Hao,WU Xia,WANG Wei,LIN Anqi,SONG Danxia,GAO Cong,. Analysis and simulation of spatio-temporal evolution of land use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt since 2000. journal1, 2019, 53(5): 692-702.
2019, Vol. 53 
