Research on comprehensive evaluation and prediction of lithium resource security in China
ZHOU Zhiyi1， FAN Jinqi1， CHENG Jinhua1,3， ZHU Yongguang1， XU Deyi1， MAO Yu2
(1.School of Economics and Management， China University of Geosciences (Wuhan)， Wuhan 430074， China； 2.School of Resource， China University of Geosciences (Wuhan)， Wuhan 430074， China； 3.Resource and Environmental Economics Research Center， China University of Geosciences (Wuhan)， Wuhan 430074， China)
Abstract：Currently， global public health events， geopolitical conflicts， and power struggles are impacting the global industrial and supply chains. The critical metal resources for clean energy face significant supply risks. This article proposes a new model for predicting the degree of mineral resource security， including demand forecasting， primary resource supply forecasting， and recycling resource supply forecasting. Based on scenario analysis， the model combines micro mining data and macroeconomic data， and comprehensively applies econometric models， machine learning， factor simulation and other methods. This model fully considers factors such as exploration， cost， trade， and recycling to comprehensively predict and analyze the degree of lithium resource security in China under multiple scenarios. The research results show that there is a risk of insufficient long-term reserves of lithium resources in China. Increasing exploration investment can effectively increase future available reserves and improve resource security. The guarantee level of primary lithium in China will gradually increase in the future， and it will meet half of the domestic demand by 2030. The current lithium resource recovery rate is relatively low. Increasing the recovery rate can effectively enhance the supply of secondary lithium. When the recovery rate is increased to over 40%， it can basically achieve domestic protection of lithium resources. It is suggested to increase exploration investment，implement a new round of mining operations， improve mining production efficiency and to ensure the production of primary resources. The government is expected to encourage enterprises to strengthen lithium resource recovery and improve resource recovery rates. It is also suggested to accelerate technological innovation， improve resource utilization， and reduce recycling costs.
2024, Vol. 58 
