Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of epidemic disasters in northwest China， 770 BCE—1000 CE
GONG Shengsheng1,2,3, DU Yuhan1
1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China 2.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geoprocess Analysis and Simulation， Wuhan 430079， China 3.Center for Sustainable Development Studies， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079， China
Abstract：The northwest China served as a vital corridor for Eurasian trade and disease transmission. This study employed time-series analysis， GIS spatial analysis， and factor correlation analysis to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of epidemic disasters in northwest China from 770 BCE to 1000 CE. The findings reveal： 1）During 770 BCE—1000 CE， the region experienced 38 epidemic disaster years， with an epidemic frequency of only 2.15%， lower than the national average； Epidemics predominantly occurred in spring and autumn， exhibiting a long-term fluctuating upward trend consistent with national patterns during the same period. 2） During 770 BCE—1000 CE， epidemics in the northwest concentrated in the relatively densely populated southeast. Agricultural areas experienced more epidemics than pastoral regions， with transportation corridors forming high-incidence zones. The Baoji-Xi’an-Weinan area on the Guanzhong Plain was a hotspot， while the Lanzhou-Xining and Yan’an-Yulin lines were cold spots. 3） From 770 BCE to 1000 CE， the formation of epidemic patterns in northwest China was influenced by multiple factors including climate， natural disasters， and human activities： epidemics occurred more frequently during cold， dry periods than during warm， humid periods. Disasters significantly triggered epidemics， with periods of frequent disasters coinciding with periods of frequent epidemics， and areas prone to disasters also being areas prone to epidemics. These findings provide valuable insights for studying the mechanisms of epidemic occurrence and spread in arid and semi-arid regions.
2025, Vol. 59 
