Spatial-temporal laws and its driving mechanism of malaria epidemics in Hubei Province before 1949
ZHANG Tao1， 2，ZENG Yuxin1,2， CHEN Zhiyu1,2， YAN Jinbo1,2， MEI Lin1,2， WANG Xiaowei3， SHI Guoning4， GONG Shengsheng1,2
(1.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation， Central China Normal University，Wuhan 430079，China；2.Institute of Sustainable Development， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079，China；3.College of Tourism， Shandong Women’s University，Jinan 250300，China；4.School of Economics and Management， Handan University， Handan 056006，Hebei，China)
Abstract：Based on the historical and environmental data of the epidemic， using M-K test， wavelet analysis， spatial autocorrelation model， epidemic center of gravity model and geographically weighted regression model， the spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of malaria epidemic in Hubei Province before 1949 were analyzed. The results were shown as follows. 1) In Qing Dynasty (1644-1911)， there were 14 malaria years in 268 years， with a frequency of 5.2%. In the Republic of China (1912-1949)， malaria became more frequent， with a total of 20 malaria years in 38 years， with a frequency of 52.6%. The prevalence of malaria in the Republic of China showed a fluctuating trend， and 1940 was the time point when malaria began to mutate and grow. The malaria epidemic in the Republic of China has fluctuation cycles of 18 years and 4 years. On average， a major epidemic occurs every 12 years， and a minor epidemic occurs every 3 years. The popular seasons are mainly summer and autumn， followed by spring and least in winter. 2) The malaria epidemic in Hubei Province showed the characteristics of spreading， and developed from scattered patches to concentrated contiguous distribution. The three towns in Wuhan and Yichang were the two epidemic centers. The malaria epidemic in Hubei Province shows a significant spatial agglomeration trend. The high-high agglomeration areas include Wuchang， Hankou， Hanyang， and Yidu，and the only high-low agglomeration area is Zhushan. A low-high agglomeration belt composed of Xingshan， Yuan’an， Dangyang， and Changyang counties is formed around Yichang.No low agglomeration area appeared.The malaria center of gravity in Hubei Province has been oscillating east-west near the geometric center and gradually shifting northward， reflecting the unstable distribution of the epidemic and gradually increasing northward. 3) Factors such as river network， war， drought have a promoting effect on the malaria epidemic in Hubei， and it is more significant in the eastern part of Hubei. The improvement of the road network in the western part of Hubei has a stronger inhibitory effect on the malaria epidemic. The time-varying characteristics of malaria epidemics are mainly affected by climate and war factors， and the spatial distribution is mainly affected by population， river network and traffic factors. The driving mechanism of malaria epidemic consists of three aspects： the basic links， the influencing factors and the spatiotemporal regularity， which are organically linked by various analysis methods.
2023, Vol. 57 
